{"id":2648,"date":"2026-04-21T10:15:34","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T10:15:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insight.thomsonreuters.com\/mena\/business\/?post_type=insight_resource&#038;p=2648"},"modified":"2026-04-21T10:15:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T10:15:35","slug":"the-strait-of-hormuz-disruption-what-oil-gas-tax-teams-need-to-do-now","status":"publish","type":"insight_resource","link":"https:\/\/insight.thomsonreuters.com\/mena\/business\/resources\/resource\/the-strait-of-hormuz-disruption-what-oil-gas-tax-teams-need-to-do-now","title":{"rendered":"The Strait of Hormuz disruption: What oil &amp; gas tax teams need to do now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>One-fifth of all global oil and gas flows just got choked off, making the Strait of Hormuz a live disruption rather than a simple theoretical risk \u2014 and the tax implications are going to outlast whatever ceasefire eventually gets announced. If your tax department is still treating this as a short-term blip, that&#8217;s a problem<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>Key takeaways:<\/em><\/h2>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>The supply hit is real, not just priced-in fear<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Tanker insurance has collapsed, infrastructure is damaged, and volumes are physically offline. Some of this isn\u2019t coming back quickly.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>Tax policy is moving in five directions at once<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 Energy security incentives, BEPS 2.0 rollout, windfall tax rumblings \u2014 governments are improvising, and your effective tax rate is caught in the middle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><em>Your Evidence to Recommendations (EtR) guidance is probably already stale<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 If you haven\u2019t stress-tested your EtR guidance against $100-plus per barrel oil and a multi-quarter disruption, you\u2019re behind.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s be direct: This isn\u2019t a risky premium situation. When military strikes take out Middle Eastern infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and tanker insurers pull out of a corridor carrying 15% to 20% of global crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG), supply goes offline. That\u2019s what\u2019s happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the time of writing, the price of oil continues to fluctuate. The recent release of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/oil-market-report-march-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA\u2019s) Oil Market Report<\/a>, which forecasts and analyze the global oil market, shows that more global markets are starting to say the word&nbsp;<em>recession<\/em>. And whether or not a recession actually materializes, the energy price environment has shifted in ways that will take multiple quarters, and maybe years, to unwind. For corporate tax departments, the question isn\u2019t whether this changes their planning, it\u2019s whether they\u2019ve caught up yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Which scenario-modeling is most worth it?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Most ominously, nobody knows how this all ends, and that\u2019s exactly why your tax team may need more than one base case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The optimistic read is a short, sharp shock \u2014 prices spike, some flows resume, upstream books a windfall quarter, and consuming-country governments start muttering about excess profits taxes. Messy, but manageable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The harder scenario is prolonged disruption: Hormuz remains constrained for months, along with repeated infrastructure hits with resulting rerouting that permanently shifts where profits land and which entities suddenly have a taxable presence for which they didn\u2019t plan. Not surprisingly, transfer pricing and permanent&nbsp;establishment&nbsp;(PE) exposure get complicated fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Add to the mix,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thomsonreuters.com\/en-us\/posts\/corporates\/oecd-pillar-2-globe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the continued rolling out BEPS 2.0<\/a>&nbsp;by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that multinational corporate tax departments are still required to adhere to and now plan for how it may interact and intersect with the other two scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The policy environment is a mess, but in a very specific way<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what makes this cycle different from 2008 or 2014: Governments are pulling in opposite directions simultaneously. The United States has pivoted hard toward energy dominance \u2014 domestic fossils, nuclear, extraction incentives. Meanwhile, BEPS 2.0 is still rolling out unevenly across jurisdictions, which means your organization\u2019s effective tax rate in any given country depends heavily on where it sits in the implementation timeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Throw in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/d5093203-a1f3-4756-96c7-173668735647?countryCode=USA&amp;multistepRegForm=multistep\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">windfall tax risk<\/a>&nbsp;\u2014 which historically shows up about six months after prices stay high and voters get angry \u2014 and you have an environment in which the gap between your statutory tax rate and your actual sustainable rate could widen fast if you\u2019re not actively managing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5 actions tax team leaders can take now<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, none of these are new concepts; but in a fast-moving situation, the basics that get done quickly will beat the sophisticated that gets done late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, rebuild your EtR guidance around at least three commodity paths. Not as a theoretical exercise \u2014 as something your CFO can actually present to the board with a straight face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, map out which legal entities are genuinely exposed to Hormuz-dependent flow volumes. Companies\u2019 operations and trading teams often know this; but the tax team too often doesn\u2019t until there\u2019s a problem. Close that knowledge gap now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Third, re-rank your project pipeline on a real after-tax basis. Updated incentive assumptions, global minimum tax, domestic versus cross-border production \u2014 run all the numbers again. Some projects that looked marginal six months ago may look very different now, and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fourth, build a windfall tax playbook&nbsp;<em>before<\/em>&nbsp;you need one. The data you\u2019d need to defend your profit levels and capital allocation decisions takes time to pull together. Don\u2019t leave that work until the week the legislation drops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fifth \u2014 and this is the one that gets skipped most often \u2014 make sure the company\u2019s tax, treasury, and trading groups are talking to each other in real time. Hedging decisions, financing structures, physical flow changes \u2014 all of these have tax consequences, and they\u2019re happening fast right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">One final thought<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Corporate tax departments that come out of this looking good won\u2019t be the ones that predicted the conflict. They\u2019ll be the ones who translated what\u2019s happened into specific, actionable data and numbers for their leadership \u2014 presented quickly, clearly, and with their own company\u2019s footprint in mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>That\u2019s the brief. Now go build it.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One-fifth of all global oil and gas flows just got choked off, making the Strait of Hormuz a live disruption rather than a simple theoretical risk \u2014 and the tax&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":107,"featured_media":2649,"template":"","categories":[782,659,681],"tags":[138,787,824,764],"resource_type":[825],"insight_job_role":[713,786,845,1000,788,998,784,819],"insight_practice_area":[],"class_list":["entry","author-corpadmin","post-2648","insight_resource","type-insight_resource","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","category-beps","category-global-tax-reporting","category-global-trade-supply-chains","tag-compliance","tag-global-trade","tag-tax-compliance","tag-tax-technology","resource_type-article","insight_job_role-chief-financial-officer","insight_job_role-chief-tax-officer","insight_job_role-compliance-officer","insight_job_role-head-of-supply-chain","insight_job_role-head-of-tax","insight_job_role-head-of-trade-compliance","insight_job_role-tax-manager","insight_job_role-trade-manager","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Strait of Hormuz disruption: What oil &amp; 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